GBP/USD – Prices, Charts, and Analysis

  • Retail gross sales improved in February, flash UK PMIs subsequent.
  • GBP/USD merchants eye the US banking sector for indicators of stress.

Recommended by Nick Cawley

How to Trade GBP/USD

Most Read: BoE Raise Rates by 25bps, Expecting Inflation to Cool, GBP Edges Higher

UK retail gross sales beat expectations in February on each a month-to-month and annual foundation. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) retail gross sales volumes elevated by 1.2% in February following an increase of 0.9% in January (upwardly revised from 0.5%). According to the ONS, non-food retailer gross sales rose by 2.4$ over the month, whereas meals retailer gross sales rose by 0.9% ‘with some anecdotal evidence of reduced spending in restaurants and on takeaways because of cost-of-living pressures’.

The newest UK flash PMIs shall be launched shortly with the sequence anticipated to be flat to marginally greater in comparison with final month.

For all market-moving information releases and occasions, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBP/USD continues to edge greater, pushed primarily by US greenback weak spot. While Sterling in itself is impartial, the US greenback has been shifting decrease over the current weeks on expectations that the Fed will hit the pause button on additional price hikes. The current bout of US banking turmoil and potential contagion is now being factored into the Fed’s considering and will forestall Jerome Powell from tightening financial coverage additional.

GBP/USD has moved round 450 pips greater over the past two weeks with any pullbacks seen as a shopping for alternative. The pair broke above 1.2300 on Wednesday and Thursday but have been unable to shut and open above this degree to permit GBP/USD to maneuver greater. Today’s session is quiet to this point so a break above yesterday’s multi-week excessive at 1.2344 is unlikely. Initial assist is seen round 1.2200/1.2210.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart – March 24, 2023


Chart through TradingView

of shoppers are web lengthy.

of shoppers are web quick.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 14% -15% -3%
Weekly 3% 0% 1%

Retail Trader Data is Mixed

Retail dealer information present 43.70% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants quick to lengthy at 1.29 to 1.The variety of merchants net-long is 5.07% greater than yesterday and 10.89% decrease from final week, whereas the variety of merchants net-short is 0.52% greater than yesterday and 17.16% greater from final week.

We sometimes take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-short suggests GBP/USD costs might proceed to rise. Positioning is much less net-short than yesterday but extra net-short from final week. The mixture of present sentiment and up to date modifications provides us an extra blended GBP/USD buying and selling bias.

What is your view on the GBP/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can tell us through the shape on the finish of this piece or you may contact the writer through Twitter @nickcawley1.

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