S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Forecasts and Analysis

  • S&P 500 – Stuck within the center of this week’s vary.
  • Nasdaq 100 – Boxed in for Christmas?

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The US fairness markets have drifted decrease this week as the vacation season nears. A scarcity of any Fed perception, as a result of blackout interval forward of subsequent Wednesday’s FOMC determination, has not helped and volatility is on the wane. Next week’s US CPI (Tuesday) and Fed assembly (Wednesday) will doubtless be the final dominant market occasions forward of the season break, and except chair Powell says one thing surprising, or inflation beats/misses expectations by a margin, then merchants could take one final shot on the market earlier than closing their books.

This week’s prevailing narrative has been the removing of a number of zero-covid insurance policies in (*100*) towards rising recession fears within the US. The excellent news out of (*100*) rapidly dissipated as markets started to look via the removing of lockdown measures and deal with the deteriorating progress prospects for the world’s second-largest market by GDP. Recent Chinese PMI readings confirmed enterprise exercise slowing additional, whereas Wednesday’s steadiness of commerce surplus determine fell as exports and imports upset.

With no Fed chatter this week, knowledge took over as the motive force of any transfer. Last Friday’s strong NFPs gave the US greenback, and US Treasury yields, a raise, hitting fairness sentiment, whereas this week’s US ISM determine beat expectations and additional bolstered the greenback. Friday’s knowledge was a combined to constructive bag with PPI above forecasts, whereas Michigan shopper sentiment beat expectations and one-year inflation expectations fell. The ‘good news is bad news for the market’ narrative could now come again into vogue with hawks seeing the chance to hike charges additional towards the background of a strong-than-expected financial system.

The DailyFX Economic Calendar must be adopted fastidiously subsequent week.


Most Read: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Latest – Bearish Sentiment Prevails Ahead of The Fed

The S&P 500 stays supported across the 3,912 stage that has been examined of late. The longer-term downtrend stays dominant whereas the indices have slipped under the short-term uptrend.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Daily Price Chart – December 9, 2022


of shoppers are web lengthy.

of shoppers are web quick.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -8% 3% -3%
Weekly 23% -6% 7%

Retail dealer knowledge exhibits 51.84% of merchants are net-long with the ratio of merchants lengthy to quick at 1.08 to 1.The quantity of merchants net-long is 4.34% decrease than yesterday and 30.96% larger from final week, whereas the quantity of merchants net-short is 2.54% larger than yesterday and 11.70% decrease from final week.

We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the actual fact merchants are net-long suggests US 500 costs could proceed to fall. Positioning is much less net-long than yesterday however extra net-long from final week. The mixture of present sentiment and up to date adjustments offers us a additional combined US 500 buying and selling bias.

The Nasdaq 100 has been caught in a field formation for the final month and is more likely to keep that method except subsequent week’s CPI and/or FOMC determination throws the tech index a break. While current value motion exhibits a bullish flag set-up, the robust downtrend continues to weigh on the Nasdaq.

Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures Daily Price Chart – December 9, 2022


For all market-moving knowledge releases and financial occasions see the real-time DailyFX Calendar.

What is your view on US Indices – bullish or bearish?? You can tell us through the shape on the finish of this piece or you’ll be able to contact the creator through Twitter @nickcawley1.

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