Indices Talking Points:

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We’re winding all the way down to the tip of the 12 months however volatility in shares has continued to circulate. Today introduced a robust transfer to begin the session because the S&P 500 put in a lifeless drop from the important thing zone of resistance that got here into the image yesterday on the 3912-3928 space on the chart. This was resistance in late-October earlier than turning into assist over a few totally different episodes in November. Last week’s FOMC-fueled sell-off broke via that space because the S&P touched all the way down to the 3802-3810 zone that I had checked out over the weekend.

That assist stopped the bleeding, no less than briefly, with a doji printing on Tuesday adopted by appreciable energy yesterday. Price had paused at this key juncture of prior assist coming into this morning, however the GDP launch out of the US got here out to finish shock because the Q3 Final learn confirmed at 3.2% v/s the two.9% that was anticipated. This illustrates continued energy within the US financial system which comes together with the potential for continued-hawkishness from the FOMC, very similar to Powell had warned of final week when sellers began to get to work.

At this level, there’s yet another massive batch of knowledge earlier than the vacation weekend and that’s tomorrow’s Core PCE launch, set to drop at 8:30 AM ET. There’s additionally a launch of Durable Goods orders on the similar time which can be a high-impact launch, after which we get Consumer Sentiment numbers at 10 AM. This might make for a busy backdrop within the US Dollar and US equities, as properly.

At this level, the S&P 500 has put in one other sturdy bounce from assist within the 3802-3810 zone. This is an enormous spot as there’s two Fibonacci ranges in shut proximity and maybe extra importantly, it’s proven affect, serving to to carry resistance in late-October and early-November earlier than serving to to set assist via a lot of final month.

So, on the very least, the battle strains are very outlined within the S&P 500 going into tomorrow. Resistance sits at 3912-3928 whereas assist is at 3802-3810. Below that assist 3750 and 3704, each of which have been higher-lows as worth was breaking out in November.

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S&P 500 Daily Price Chart

Chart ready by James Stanley; S&P 500 on Tradingview


For bearish themes the tech-heavy index continues to hold a bit extra attraction and, at this level, worth stays very near the 2022 swing lows which printed in a key zone. That zone runs from 10,501 as much as 10,751 and this helped to mark the lows in each October and November. If sellers could make a deeper push, this turns into a large check but when they’ll sink worth via that, then there’s an enormous spot on the 10k psychological stage, which can be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018-2021 main transfer which, maybe satirically, spans the Fed’s final reducing cycle.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Price Chart


Chart ready by James Stanley; Nasdaq 100 on Tradingview


For bullish fairness approaches, the Dow stays as extra engaging than the Nasdaq and even perhaps the S&P 500. The Dow dropped to an enormous spot on the chart right now and this is similar spot that I had highlighted on within the weekly forecast, which got here into play on Tuesday. This is a swing-high from September that’s confluent with a bearish trendline projection. I’ve that plotted at 32,789 and it helped to carry the lows once more right now.

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Dow Daily Price Chart


Chart ready by James Stanley; Dow Jones on Tradingview

— Written by James Stanley

Contact and observe James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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