USD/JPY OUTLOOK: BULLISH

  • USD/JPY traded barely decrease on Friday, however managed a small acquire on the week
  • The Fed and the Bank of Japan financial coverage resolution can be a very powerful catalysts for worth motion subsequent week
  • Japanese authorities might transfer intervene within the foreign money market if the U.S. greenback continues to strengthen quickly, however any measure is more likely to supply solely momentary respite for the yen

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USD/JPY traded decrease on Friday and moved barely beneath the 143.00 deal with, however nonetheless managed to eke out a small acquire during the last 5 periods forward of subsequent week’s high-impact knowledge that might set off volatility and set the tone for the market.

There are two necessary occasions on the financial calendar that foreign money merchants ought to take note of: the Federal Reserve’s financial coverage announcement on Wednesday afternoon, after which the Bank of Japan’s rate of interest resolution, additionally on the identical day in Eastern time.

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

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How to Trade USD/JPY

With the USD/JPY sitting at multi-decade highs after an explosive rally this 12 months, merchants are questioning whether or not the trade price will proceed to trek upwards or reverse decrease within the close to time period. The U.S. greenback maintains a optimistic bias from a basic standpoint, whereas the Japanese yen lacks clear tailwinds past the menace of some kind of intervention by Japanese authorities.

In any case, for now, the stability of dangers is tilted towards a stronger U.S. greenback, thanks partially to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive measures to curb inflation. Focusing on the U.S. central financial institution, the establishment is anticipated to lift borrowing prices by three-quarters of a proportion level to three.00%-3.25% at its September assembly, delivering a cumulative tightening of 300 foundation factors since March.

The FOMC can also be more likely to forecast a better peak price for the present cycle than the projection printed within the June SEP (3.8%), maybe consistent with market pricing, which anticipates a terminal price of ~4.48% in April 2023. A hawkish price hike outlook might additional bolster the buck, particularly towards low-yielding currencies.

On the opposite aspect of the equation, the Bank of Japan is anticipated to face pat, protecting its benchmark price unchanged at -0.100%, a stage the place it has been since 2016. In phrases of the unconventional instruments, no changes to the yield curve management scheme or the asset buy program are seen being delivered. This means the Japanese yen is not going to be receiving help from the financial coverage entrance anytime quickly.

Should USD/JPY overshoot to the upside and method the 145.00 deal with, Japanese authorities could also be tempted to intervene within the FX market to prop up the JPY, however any reprieve could solely be momentary, because the engaging US greenback carry commerce might finally negate such efforts.

USD/JPY WEEKLY CHART

Chart  Description automatically generated

USD/JPY Chart Prepared Using TradingView

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—Written by Diego Colman, Market Strategist for DailyFX

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